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Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Santos on the hot seat

I'll be conducting an interview of NAHL Commish Michael Santos this evening. Sorry, it won't be live (I may turn it into a podcast, however). I have a decent set of questions already, but if there's anything you want to ask, send my your questions and I'll see what I can fit in.


The Stanley we never knew

This is pretty funny. I can appreciate the struggle to market the game in the USA, but have to wonder if purists think the animated movies are sacreligious... The ad agency handling NBC/OLN's Cup marketing sent me this:
He wasn’t always the Stanley Cup…

Once upon a time he was an over-weight trophy in a trailer park, with dreams of greatness. In five awesome animations, www.BeingStanley.com charts the Stanley Cup’s rise from freakishly large misfit to the greatest trophy of them all.

Posting video, take two...

Let's try this again. I think YouTube (unlike what I tried yesterday) is a more robust platform to be posting clips from anyway. This 80's clip of Probert and Yzerman getting into it with the Sabres has been making the rounds of the Red Wings bloggers. As I watch it, all I can say to myself is.... "Don't feed the bears..."

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Why Freeze?

Quiet day... folks still slow getting back up to speed from the long weekend...

Maybe it's just me, but if I was White Bear Lake's Zach Hensen, and wanted to play hockey and golf for a D1 program after next season, I'd want to play somewhere that I could at least get in a round or two a week while I was playing hockey. How many rounds could he get in while playing for Sioux Falls vs. somewhere warmer like say... Santa Fe (who tendered him)? If he goes to the Stampede, I hope he buys lots of orange golfs balls.

Monday, May 29, 2006

Late Monday Misc...

I can tell you why former Texas Tornado Jon Awe lacks a Southern accent. It's because hockey rinks in the south have homogenous populations. If you go to a rink in Marquette, you're going to find it full of Yoopers named Eino and Toivo. But if you walk into a rink down here, you're as likely to get a Bahston accent or someone who talks like an extra from the movie "Fargo" (youbetcha!) as someone sounding like Tommy Lee Jones. But after a nice career at Northeastern, it's good to see Jon make a splash in the pros. I see his still wearing the same #2 he wore when he patrolled the Blue Line at Blue Line.

Here's the latest blurb in the ongoing saga in Onalaska.

For those who get hung up with attendance numbers, specifically the lack of them in the NAHL, here's a brief comparison with a team from the AJHL. Since the story didn't give any hard figures on what the Camrose Kodiaks average, I pulled the boxscores off their website and observed most of their games were in the 750-850 range. Of course, teams in the Provincial leagues don't have nearly the travel costs.

It's on this holiday weekend that I usually start suffering from HDS (Hockey Deficiency Syndrome). The junior season has been over for weeks and I start getting antsy like I haven't had my morning Dr Pepper. So I've been looking for some good action & fight clips to start adding to the blog. This first one does have an NAHL connection, since Kelly Chase is one of the owners of the Chesterfield Used-to-be-Bandits...

(Update: Sorry, I'm going to pull this for now... it was loading very very slowly.)

Of course, I think this image sums things up nicely as well...

Sunday, May 28, 2006

Monday news

Nice story from Marquette talking about their draft picks and also showing off their home jersey. They'll also have a copper third jersey which should look nice.

Interesting article a few weeks ago from Canada, which begs the question: "why on earth would anyone prevent players from an advancement opportunity?" A self-imposed glass ceiling sounds like a sure way to slowly (or rapidly even) kill your minor association.

Here's an optimistic op-ed from Texarkana on recent events. Clearly there remains the expectation that the Minton Sportsplex will be built and hockey will return. I admittedly don't follow the day-to-day affairs of the Minton project and for the sake of Texarkana fans hope I'm wrong, but I'm just not sure it's going to happen. In addition, it's rather ironic that the Bandits simultaneously made a semi-regular feature in the Gazette, coming in 54th in things to love about Texarakana and the region. My guess is the team would actually rank higher, but editors figured they' better rank them now before everyone forgets who they were.

Looks like there's another non-traditional market on the horizon. Here's a team that has to fly to all their games... but after looking at their jerseys I didn't know that there were any Zia expatriates in Dubai.

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Catching up on news...

I'm going to get some articles linked from here that I've missed in the last month or so, but are still interesting reading. There's even some USHL news in here for folks who think I neglect Tier I.

This isn't old news, but I found it looking through my archive sources. The Wasilla Spirit have been renamed the Alaska Avalanche. According to the article, team colors will change to blue, gold and white from purple and white, and the team's old bird-of-prey logo will be replaced with a silver-colored avalanche motif.

Next is this from Springfield. Of interest is the Jr. Blues' intent to reduce their budget from $500k to $400k. Good luck on that.

The USHL felt it was important to note that one of their top draft picks, Eric Kattelus, was the NAHL's Rookie of the Year. Of course, that means that the "superior" USHL was either out-scouted or otherwise incapable of acquiring Kattelus last summer.

For those who missed it, here's Bismarck's and Fargo's perspective on the collapse of the NAHL in Montana. Nothing particularly earth-shattering in the articles, but I thought I'd post them anyway.

Former Texas Tornado goalie Dave McKee got a nice write-up this week on ESPN.com. The final quote might get the attention of some outside the Lone Star State... "Hockey's big in Dallas. There are a lot of good players coming out of Dallas now."

Waterloo this week picked up the USHL All Star Game in 2007. Good for them.

Grand Island, Nebraska is still online to open the 2007-08 season as members of the USHL. The article is somewhat confusing, however, as it claims that owner Roger Anderson has acquired the rights to the dormant Danville franchise. Those rights are now the Indiana Ice. I have to assume this was the "second" set of franchise rights acquired by the Mervis family, originally intended to be used in Champaign, IL, but also shopped to Bloomington and LaCrosse (Onalaska). Anderson still needs to sign a lease with the Heartland Event Center.

But wait, in an article dated yesterday, here's Mervis still exploring droping his franchise into Onalaska.

That's enough for now... drop me a comment below if listening to Dennis Lemieux is too annoying, and you want me to take him off (or replace him with some other clip).

Friday, May 26, 2006

Texans promotions

Someone asked, so here's the list of Texans promotions:

Tony Janssen - Fairbanks Ice Dogs NAHL (midseason), Concordia NCAA D3
Blaine Gamst - Weyburn Red Wings SJHL (midseason, Concordia NCAA D3
Bryan Hurson - Concordia NCAA D3
Mike Persson - Concordia NCAA D3
Brent Sands - Concordia NCAA D3
Corey Brennan - Oswego Admirals OPJHL Jr A
Kevin Mixon - Oswego Admirals OPJHL Jr A
Chris Kiminki - Oswego Admirals OPJHL Jr A
Blake Jenson - Oswego Admirals OPJHL Jr A
John Hubbard - Oswego Admirals OPJHL Jr A
Andrew Lacombe - Salem State NCAA D3
Tim Camp and Mike Monk both have D3 offers, but have yet to make their final decision. In any case, it's not a bad record for a first year coach with a first year team who also happened to dethrone the Polar Bears.

Probably the most important players staying with head coach Jeremy Law as he and the franchise move to Tucson are Dan Dolan and Matt Wargo. Dolan racked up numbers at a 3 PPG pace, and last season Wargo's pace was over a point a game, so they're not a bad core to start with.

Sundogs Sign Sellan

Congrats to former Tornado forward Karl Sellan, who today signed with the CHL's Arizona Sundogs. The Sundogs are an expansion team coached by former WSHL Idaho Rattlers head coach Marco Pietroniro.

Texarkana Toast

Here's the Texarkana Gazette article. Some hope remains that a team might return once Minton completes his financing and constuction of a new facility, but for now, color me slightly pessimistic of that coming to fruition.

At this point, I'm not even going to bother with drawing up new division lineups until after the Junior Council meetings.

Explanation

It's clear many don't understand what has taken place in Texarkana... First off, there is NO new arena. The complex that was intended to be the new home for the Bandits is, at best, perhaps only half-funded. Groundbreaking has been delayed again and again. As a hockey arena, Four States is broken. The lack of effective climate controls places an incredible environmental strain on all the equipment - compressor (one recently broke down), boards, everything. The Bandits have no control over scheduling, and lose dates and practice ice for gun shows, RV conventions, the circus... and other events. Time has run out for the team, and they cannot tolerate the situation any longer.

Always Buy Chesterfield?

Unconfirmed reports this morning that the Texarkana Bandits officially announced last night their intentions to move to St. Louis. The Texarkana Gazette's online edition is traditionally slow to update in the morning, so there's nothing there yet, but I've been told the story is front page above the fold, so I'll post it as soon as it comes across.

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Lunch Bites

What do you do when your three oldest rivals shut down? If you're the Bismarck Bobcats, I guess you just shrug your shoulders and move on.

Maine Black Bears, Santa Fe Roadrunners, and Lone Star Cavalry fans might be interested in Bryan Plaszcz's game-worn Roadrunners jersey now up for bid on ebay.

This blog is not the only website with a web counter spinning wildly... On draft day the NAHL's website logged an all-time record 10,103 unique visitors, twice their daily average.

Finally... for those who have emailed me with concerns over the potential new owners of the Fort Worth Texans, specifically their status as (big-time) professional poker players. While I appreciate the concern about gambling, was this ever an issue when a casino owned a franchise? Sure, it was the Sault Kewadin tribe that owned the Soo Indians, but the tribe also owns several casinos, and the team was in part a marketing tool for those casinos. I don't see this as an issue.

Bighorns staying, sorta...

Here's this morning's article by the Independent Record covering yesterday's news conference in Helena. It answers the question of which of Mike Butters' two teams will survive recent events (Bighorns, but in the NorPac), and who will be coaching (Cutty's coach Scott Cunningham, Brent Agrusa will be scouting). It also lends continued strength to the idea that a rebirth of the AWHL is still a year away.

Texans Sold, to Relocate

More stuff every day...

Pending approval, the WSHL Thorne Cup Champion Fort Worth Texans have been purchased by a group consisting of Jon MacWilliams, Daniel Negreanu, Gavin Smith, Eric Lundgren, and Bill Edler. The team will be moved to Tucson and will play at Tucson Ice. Jeremy Law, who as a rookie coach vanquished the Phoenix Polar Bears and promoted over a dozen players to either Junior A or college teams, has been retained by the group and will be GM in addition to head coach, and several Texans players will be making the move with him as well. A new nickname/logo should be released in a few days, along with the website. There is currently no word on what Law will do with his Texans tattoo.

I fully expect a new franchise on the west side of the DFW Metroplex to be announced before the Junior Council meetings.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Dallas news...

...well, sorta... It looks like the deal for Brian Woroniuk and others to operate the Dallas Titans (or Mustangs or whatever they get called) next season will be approved by the WSHL... But on a related note, I've learned Woroniuk is also attempting to acquire a franchise in the South Saskatchewan Junior Hockey League. That's a heck of a commute.

Bandits moving?!???

Texarkana Bandits head coach went on the local sports radio station today had faced questions regarding the status of the franchise. Cooper outlined several options, including:

1) Continuing at Four States
2) Selling to someone willing to continue at Four States
2) Going on hiatus until their new facility is ready
3) Moving
4) Folding

Cooper said the team must make a decision within 7-10 days. By no coincidence, this falls inside the suspense date set by the Junior Council meetings.

My money is on moving, and the market is St. Louis, where they played some playoff games this year. I have multiple reports it is indeed St. Louis, and logic suggests if they don't have a deal now, they won't have time to get one done before the meetings.

Other than my rants, it's been a while since I've shown much emotion... but hearing this makes me sick. Texarkana is a good market that deserves to succeed. Unfortunately, Four States Arena is a pain. The Bandits give up dates (and more importantly, practice ice) for the most banal of bookings. It's an interesting barn with a unique atmosphere, but on the business side it just plain sucks. The boards are from Waco and after six seasons in Four States are in horrible shape. The arena lacks any climate controls, so on a hot day it rains inside due to the condensation dripping off the steel beams.

Billings Update

Here's the latest from the Billings Gazette... I won't argue with Doug Strong, but he really should consider adjusting his timeline, because I don't think he'll know what is going on until after the Junior Council meetings, which are around June 8/9 or thereabouts. Of course, the way the article is worded, it sounds like the AWHL is almost unmentionable. "Strong said if the team is granted membership, it would remain in that league..." Why didn't he just say: "NorPac is our only option. We are not interesting in being a Tier III-A franchise in the AWHL."

Or maybe I'm just confused. In any case, it looks like the Bulls will land in Centennial.

Hump Day

Happy Wednesday, everyone. Lots of bits and pieces to report.

Mike Butters will be holding a press conference this afternoon to address his situation regarding the Bighorns and Cuttys. I am anticipating that he will merge the operations into one franchise. Pending what happens in the next few weeks with the Junior Council, the franchise will be either in the AWHL or the NorPac. My money is on the franchise going by the Bighorns name.

The El Paso Rhinos will be holding their invite camp June 23-25 at the Sierra Providence Event Center in El Paso. Camp costs $125.00 (non-refundable). Tryout camp consists of two practices and five games. Goaltenders will have extra sessions to be evaluated. Camp schedule will be posted on their website and also emailed to every applicant. Hotel information rooms under El Paso Rhinos: Baymont Inn and Suites $60 rate/night 7944 Gateway Blvd E, 915-591-3300. For more information or a tryout form, players can call the team at 915.479.PUCK.

NAHL had their draft Tuesday, which in hindsight is another major reason for the conference call Monday to shove Bozeman and Helena to the inactive list. When the Montana players were made free agents, it also made them draft eligible, and previously tendered players were in fact drafted. Here are the links for those who can't find them tenders or draft list (the links are kind of hard to spot on the NAHL's website).

Finally, thanks again to everyone who's been coming here. The blog officially passed 100,000 hits since its inception about midday Tuesday. Unofficially it happened a day or two earlier, as I didn't add a counter for the first week or so, and screwed up the counter code for a couple days back in February. I'm also seeing records for daily traffic smashed on a regular basis, and cracked the 1,000 hits/day mark for the first time with 1,107 hits Monday and 1,210 on Tuesday. Thanks!

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

The View from Billings

Here's another story on the Valley Ice Garden sale, this time from the Billings Gazette. As far as Helena goes, I'm not expecting a whole lot from the Independent Record. I think the only time in five years they wrote about the Bighorns they screwed up Mike Butters' resume.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Valley Ice Garden Sold

Now we know why Martel missed the conference call...
Ice Garden sell
Andrew Hinkelman - Chronicle Sports Writer

Speculation became reality Monday as the Valley Ice Garden was sold to Cardinal Distributing. The building will close after August and be renovated into a new cold-storage warehouse for the beverage distributor.

As a result, the Bozeman Icedogs Junior A hockey team, the Ice Garden's primary tenant, has suspended operations and will either be sold and relocated or dissolved.

The team requested and was granted inactive status by the North American Hockey League.

Ice Garden and Icedogs owner Bill Martel made the announcement Monday afternoon at the Chronicle.

"This came to be based on the fact that our West Division was no longer going to be in existence - the way we're accustomed to seeing it, at least," he said. "We're the lone man standing and that's not going to work, for many, many reasons. Financially, of course, is the main one."

The NAHL approved the termination of the Billings hockey franchise and sale and relocation of the Helena franchise on May 13 in Ohio. That left the Icedogs as the only team in Montana, their nearest opponent in Bismarck, N.D.

The financial impact of increased travel, combined with the likely dip in home attendance with no regional rival on the schedule, set in motion a chain of events culminating in Monday's announcement.

"It's been fairly common knowledge that we've been interested in selling (the Ice Garden) and not remain in the hockey business," Martel said. "We've had various parties express an interest in purchasing that facility the last nine years, ever since we've taken possession of it."

But the developments in Billings and Helena over the last month accelerated the efforts to unload the building.

"Our hopes and dreams were always that somebody would buy it and retain it as a hockey facility," Martel said. "Now that we're the only standing member of the West Division, we're a league of one, and that's not going to work. We really had no option but to look for another use for that facility."

The Ice Garden has been a financial black hole for the Martel family ever since they took ownership of the building in 1997.

Martel Construction was commissioned to build the rink, but the original owners couldn't pay up and the Martels got the Ice Garden and Icedogs as part of the settlement.

And while the Icedogs have been a success on and off the ice, the team hasn't been able to make the arena profitable.

"The financial shortcomings of that facility are astronomical," Martel said.

Icedogs general manager Jason Martel said a number of potential buyers have stepped forward over the years with the intent of continuing to operate the Ice Garden as a hockey/skating facility. But once they learned of the building's operating costs, any deal was off.

"It's lost a substantial amount of money every year," Bill Martel said. "The Icedogs as a stand-alone entity would have been able to make money, and did make money.

"Obviously now with the events that have occurred here in the last month, maintaining that as a hockey facility makes it more difficult than it ever was in the past, so that prompted us to pursue the other use of the facility more aggressively."

That's where Cardinal Distributing comes in. Martel said that owner Ed Brandt was looking at building a new facility. Instead, Martel suggested Brandt consider renovating the Ice Garden.

The Valley Ice Garden will remain open through the end of August. Any previously scheduled events during that time will take place as planned. Fans who have paid money toward 2006-07 Icedogs season tickets should expect a refund by July 1.

"It wasn't something we took lightly," Martel said. "I know there'll be some hurt feelings. That's understandable. We did the best we could, and I'm proud of that."

Conference Call Update

Jason Martel was not on the NAHL conference call, so I don’t know if this was pre-arranged, but Bozeman has been placed on inactive status. Helena has been granted inactive status as well. Players from all three Montana teams have been declared free agents. The league has determined that teams cannot trade/sell players when they know they are going inactive.

Given recent events, this is not terribly surprising. It finally answers the question as to the status of the Montana teams and their players, but leaves open the whole NorPac/AWHL issue for another day.

Monday Mailbag

While the NAHL chats on a conference call to discuss life, the universe, Montana, and everything, I thought I’d check the mailbag. Some have constructive comments or pose thoughtful questions, some folks forward me the latest rumors, and some are just plain stupid. In no particular order, here’s a sampling, with an appropriate response:

Hey Marc, it’s a done deal… (choose from) Bozeman - Helena - Santa Fe - Cleveland - Billings - Fort Worth - Springfield is moving to (choose from) Topeka - San Angelo - Enid - Fort Worth - Timbuktu - North Richland Hills - Cody - Lake Charles - Phoenix - Taylor - Tucson… why aren’t you talking about it?

I get a lot of these Chinese menus (one from Column A and one from Column B), and based on logic (two different sources telling me two teams are going to the same market, or one team going to different markets) I know someone has got to be wrong. Some of these I do know about and am sitting on because they aren’t a done deal and I don’t want to influence the process (reference my post from last week). But just speaking from experience, nothing is ever a done deal until the puck is dropped on opening night. But if anyone wants a suspense date, the Junior Council meetings start June 9th. We should know a lot more about a lot of things by then (if not by the end of this conference call).

Hey Marc, what are you doing putting Marquette with the Minn-kota teams?!??? What about building a rivalry with Traverse City and Alpena?

When I suggested my divisional layout for the NAHL, I never suggested that Marquette never venture below the bridge. In fact, I referred to the Rangers as a swing team – one that crosses over and plays a lot of games against teams from another division. The Springfield Blues were a swing team last year, playing officially in the South, but playing 16 non-Blaine games against the North (and 12 games against North Iowa and Southern Minnesota). I say kick Marquette west, but have them play 8-10 games each against Traverse City and Alpena. While we’re at it, let’s give them all something to play for: The Mackinac Cup has a nice ring to it. I’m sure each team could go to one of their major sponsors and raise a little extra cash to pay for a trip to the local trophy shop.

Hey Marc, what’s with all this trashing of (pick Marc’s whipping boy of the week) ?

It’s one thing to complain, it’s another to offer solutions. I’ve been trying to do less of the former and more of the later. For one thing, it’s the only way The Powers That Be will pay any attention. I know I’m being read, I’m just not sure how much real listening is going on.

Most folks know I’m in Fort Worth, which means I get a heavy dose of Mark Cuban. A lot of folks outside of Dallas-Fort Worth have a very narrow view (thanks to his mouth and on-court antics) of what Cuban has accomplished - not just with the Mavericks, but the NBA in general. He has made the NBA ask itself why it operates the way it does at all levels (not just officiating). In many cases, the response has been “because that’s how we’ve always done it,” but that’s no way to defend your procedures and processes. He’s exposed the NBA for what it is, a league that’s traditionally been marginally operated, but has gotten lazy riding on the backs of Bird/Magic/Jordan. Most do not realize over half of NBA franchises averaged under 10,000 fans a game well into the 1980’s, and that it wasn’t until well into the Jordan era that it began to outdraw the NHL. Anyway, back to the point – Mark Cuban is good for the NBA. I’d like to think I’m good for junior hockey.

Hey Marc, what’s with the math? What are all those symbols?

I don’t think anyone has a problem with the four basic functions, but that ^2 might have thrown folks, it’s the squaring of the figure in front of it. Since I don’t want to mess with super/subscripts, I reverted back to some old programming code (^) to display powers. Multiplication is commonly denoted with an asterisk (*). The exponent (2) is not the only power to which a term may be raised, so… nevermind. I just put you all to sleep again…

Hey Marc, do you have a life?

Yes. I’m no Moe Berg or Herbert Philbrick, but I just like to keep busy.

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Sunday Stats Study - Pythagorean Values

Last Sunday I wrote an introductory piece on hockeymetrics, which is to hockey what sabermetrics is to baseball (or at least it will be once some analytical methods become mainstream). Today I’ll start with a basic method, Pythagorean values. Pythagorean values were first developed by Bill James, and projects a winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed:
                  RS^2
Winning Pct = -----------
RS^2 + RA^2

Where:
RS = Runs Scored
RA = Runs Allowed
^2 = raised to the power of 2
James later adjusted his exponent to 1.84, and other sabermetricians developed further refinements to adjust for dead vs. lively ball eras.

About eight years ago I adapted the equation for hockey, substituting goals for runs and using a different exponents for different eras. In the pre-Original Six era (1917-42) the exponent was 1.63. For 1942-67, it was 1.93, and in the expansion era (through 1998) it is 2.03. These exponents vary in order to minimize the average total error per team in each era, which ranged from 3.01 to 3.61 points. In other words, over 82 games I can accurately predict a record within slightly less than two games.

When I originally set up the Pythagorean numbers for hockey, I calculated the records for all NHL teams from 1917 to 1998, and also displayed the most over and under-performing teams. I also left open the question of overtime points, a question that remains unaddressed to this day.

A similar Pythagorean derivative is to split up a team’s even strength and special teams goals to determine their even strength and special teams winning percentages. For special teams play, shorthanded goals scored are subtracted from their GA, while conversely the shorthanded allowed are subtracted from the GF. The purpose is to make the equation behave more like baseball’s, where runs are scored and allowed in distinct periods (half innings). Hockey special teams play is similarly a distinct opportunity to score or be scored upon, and so shorthanded goals should be subtracted accordingly.

A few years ago, I added a new twist to the Pyth% by taking it down to the player level. Since raw +/- data sums to the total GF/GA for a franchise, why don’t I do the same for players as I did for teams? The theory generates two separate sets of figures. One set accounts for all GF/GA, regardless of the situation. The other incorporates only even strength situations. A third set may be derived from special teams play, but since not all players play in both powerplay and penalty killing situations, the data isn’t really as valid as one might think.

The final step in personal Pyth% is to incorporate ice time. Applying TOI allows us to determine the magnitude of the Pyth. Who’s more valuable, a Pyth% of .650 for a defenseman playing 28 minutes a game for 82 games, or a Pyth% of .800 a third liner who averages 12 minutes when he’s not scratched a third of the time? If one takes the total TOI and divides it by 300, you get an individual’s player-game (60 min x 5 skaters). Multiply player-games by personal Pyth% and you get individual wins (and loses). Since the sum of individual wins equals the total team wins (team Pyth% * 82), splitting it down to a player level remains a valid methodology.

Additional Reading - SportsIllustrated.com columns on this subject:
Pythagorean Hockey Primer
Advanced Pythagorean Methods
Situational Pythagorean Wins and Losses
Personal Pythagorean Stats, Part I
Personal Pythagorean stats, Part II

Valley Beer Barn III

Andrew Hinkelman of the Bozeman Daily Chronicle wrote a story today as well. The Chronicle keeps their articles online for just a day, so I'm posting it below. Hinkleman gives me a cautious wink near the end, even though my original posting yesterday concerning this situation fell short of any sort of absolute declaration. I originally heard about the beer warehouse Tuesday or Wednesday, but dismissed it until it became a low roar. But then, what would the SillySeason be without a few offbeat stories? I agree with the rampant rumors though, but if the concern that this is not "a done deal" is so great, why is it expressed in the last paragraph of the article?.

In his article Hinkleman also has taken the NorPac first, AWHL later path, so maybe things are snowballing in that direction. Of course, getting a straight, agenda-free answer out of anyone is nigh on impossible...
Valley Ice Garden on the block
Andrew Hinkelman - Chronicle Sports Writer

Despite widespread rumors to the contrary, the Valley Ice Garden has not been sold - yet.

However, Ice Garden owner Jason Martel did say Friday that he is in active discussions with a potential buyer. At this point the talks center around the feasibility of converting the building into a cold storage warehouse.

Martel declined to name the potential buyer, saying he did not want to speak for anyone else. He did say that the would-be buyer is attending a graduation out-of-state, and no decision is imminent.

"We still own it," Martel said. "We are trying to sell it, though."

The Martel family has been actively trying to sell the Four Corners building for years. Several potential suitors have expressed interest in purchasing and operating the Ice Garden as it is now, but have backed out once they learned of the operating costs.

"It's a money loser," said Martel of the Ice Garden.

Any changes to how the Ice Garden currently operates would not occur until September, Martel said.

But the potential sale and conversion of the Garden throws the future of the building's many tenants into doubt. The loss of the 3,000-plus-seat arena would deal a severe blow to the various hockey teams and figure-skating programs that use the rink, plus the indoor football team currently in its inaugural season.

The uncertainty over the Ice Garden can be traced back to the failed negotiations between the Billings Bulls of the Junior A North American Hockey League and MetraPark management over a new lease for the Bulls.

Last month, after those negotiations broke down, Bulls ownership announced they were leaving the NAHL. Last week, during the league's Robertson Cup tournament in Boardman, Ohio, the NAHL board of governors terminated the Bulls franchise and approved the relocation of the Helena franchise to Michigan.

That left the Bozeman Icedogs, the Ice Garden's primary tenant, as the only NAHL team in Montana. The prohibitive travel costs of replacing nearly half their road games with teams eight, 12 and 16 hours away instead of 90 minutes or two hours down the road made the likelihood of the Icedogs' return next season remote, at least in the NAHL.

The Bulls will play in the Junior B NorPac next season, the same league as the Bozeman Blackhawks, Queen City Cutthroats in Helena and Butte Roughriders, among others. The long-term goal is to resurrect the old America West Hockey League.

But the Blackhawks drew an average of just 207 fans to the Valley Ice Garden, hardly enough to offset the potential loss of the Icedogs, who drew almost 2,000 a game and still couldn't get the Ice Garden to turn a profit.

As the events in Helena and Billings snowballed, the Martels decided to more aggressively pursue a buyer for the Ice Garden, which has led to the rampant rumors on TV, blogs and message boards.

"It's been frustrating," Martel said. "Nothing has happened, but everybody is acting like it's a done deal. It's not. (The potential buyer) could still back out if he decides it would be cheaper to build from scratch."

Valley Beer Barn II

Leave it to the Billings Gazette to verify the situation in Bozeman... I've always wondered, but now we pretty much know that the Valley Ice Garden is too much arena for too small a town. The article also gives more ammo to the notion that the three Montana NAHL markets are first dropping down to the NorPac before reforming the AWHL. However, considering all this talk has been out of Billings, I'd prefer to wait until after things are sorted out at the Jr. Council meetings before declaring the A-Dub shelved until 2007.

Friday, May 19, 2006

Valley Beer Barn


We should know more about the status of things in Bozeman on Monday, but it looks like the Valley Ice Garden is going to be converted into a giant beer warehouse. The Icedogs/Blackhawks (I suspect Jason Martel will pick one name or the other, much as Mike Butters will have to do with Helena/Queen City) would then go play in a smaller local rink when they shift to the AWHL.

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Study Hints

Here's another post from Lindsay...

What is the Ultimate Study Aid?

I’m often asked for study tips or to instruct students on study skills and study habits. As a teacher and as a tutor, I always feel that I’ve failed miserably if my student(s) didn’t learn how to study on his own. There’s a reason for this – I won’t always be there to hold his hand, and at some point, he’s going to have to do it himself! With that in mind, I’ll offer up a few select suggestions on how to study more effectively. I’m not a big advocate of “don’t” rules so these are all written with a positive spin. Five hints for five fingers!

1) Identify how you learn best. Every person has some strength in learning, and there are three basic learning types: auditory (listening), visual (seeing), and kinesthetic (doing). Every person learns differently, and while individuals combine these learning styles, specific tasks require different learning types for different people. Take me, for example. I’m a visual learner when learning academic things. I can read text, look at diagrams, or watch a video, and retain the information. Ask me to you change a tire without showing me AND giving me a book, and I’d be completely lost. For those tasks, I have to perform the task (kinesthetic learning) and read about it (visual learning) in order to learn how to accomplish the task and remember how to do it. (Just ask my dad who taught me how to change a tire one very cold Michigan evening when my leg was in a cast!) If you don’t know your dominant learning style, you can take a quick online evaluation and identify yours in 30 or so questions.

2) Organize your time and assignments. Use a calendar, day planner, or PDA to track your assignments including when the assignment was given and when it is due. Keep different classes in different colored folders or binders. Put dates on every assignment. Label assignments with the class, page number, and assigned problems. Intricate systems using highlighters, colored pens, colored stickers, alphabetization, and numeration that challenge the Dewey decimal system are unnecessary as well as redundant.

3) Take notes. This doesn’t necessarily mean that you have to make an outline with Roman numerals and letters; however note-taking is an important skill that will serve you throughout life. If you don’t know how to do this, NOW is the time to learn. Whatever style you like to use, whether it is graphic organizers, outline format, recording the session or another, one thing is extremely important – ORGANIZATION. Organization includes the neatness and the overall presentation. All notes must include a header that has a topic and the date. (For example – History class or HIST 1113 on May 17, 2006 or 05/17/06) More detailed headers such as “HIST 1113, 05/17/06, Post Civil War Era Outcomes” may be helpful and some individuals use them. Just remember - notes should be written so that if another person needed to learn what you learned, he or she would be able to do so without requiring your help to decipher your chicken scratch and abbreviations. For those auditory learners out there, a tape recorder or digital recorder is a great device. Turn it on, record the note-taking session or meeting (that’s your header), and review at a later date. For those visual learners, note-taking includes writing the notes that the coach or instructor provides or listening to the lecture and identifying the important points. For kinesthetic learners, it’s a little more difficult. The writing process engages you temporarily, but you’ll need to combine your auditory and visual processing while you’re note-taking and then add in an activity (writing letters in the air or developing a jumping pattern for example) when reviewing in order to learn concepts effectively. Thankfully, most of us develop our auditory and visual skills because school trains us to do that – you see a lot of kinesthetic learning in kindergarten (centers and manipulatives) but those tendencies are “trained” out of us in later years.

4) Develop GOOD study habits. A habit takes 21 days to create. You need to steadily repeat something for three weeks in order for it to become a habit, good or bad.

a. Have a place to study. Find a place that is conducive to studying. This location should be free from distractions including televisions, music, cell phones, computers, etc. Having your favorite metal band blaring from the speakers while you study might be your favorite study habit, but I assure you that it’s NOT helping your concentration. Turn your cell phone off for an hour; you’ll be able to concentrate and focus on your studies and your text messaging and voice mail services will store those messages for you.

b. Have good lighting. Studying by the light of a candle might have served Abe Lincoln, but it isn’t necessary. Don’t give yourself a headache because you didn’t have adequate light sources.

c. Have the materials you need. Sharpen your pencils; keep your pen container full; have notebook paper; connect to the Internet; and have your books at hand. Leaving your Geometry book in your locker won’t help you study the theorems that you need to do proofs. While resources are available on the Internet, nothing replaces your textbook or course materials.

d. Find out if your textbook has a website. Many of the textbook publishers and their authors now have companion websites for your class texts. USE THESE SOURCES. They often have flashcards and vocabulary reviews, chapter review quizzes, chapter pre-tests, critical thinking essay style questions, and final exam questions. Textbook publishers offer professors and teachers CD-ROMs with “pre-developed” test questions – those generally come from the same bank and are the same type of questions as on the websites.

5) Get together with a study group. This is a study group not a social gathering. Remember that everyone can learn from someone else. “Chunking” (making assignments smaller by breaking them into smaller units) and “jigsaw” (assigning each person a portion of the lesson to teach to everyone else) are great techniques to help break up large assignments into more manageable parts. Be aware – members of your study group should be dedicated to learning. Everyone knows that one person who in a small group assignment that sits back and lets the “know-it-all” do all the work and then gets an “A.” Don’t be an energy leech and drain everyone else. Do your fair share, and make sure that others are doing theirs.

Blog tips

Tips for using the Blog

Since yesterday was another record day in terms of traffic to the blog (I had more hits and unique IP addresses than your average NAHL team has on a Saturday night), I thought that while I have your attention I’d take a second to brief everyone on some of the technical and philosophical aspects of the blog.

On the tech side, you can receive blog posts by email. That way you don’t have to keep checking and rechecking the blog for new postings. The email is automatic, and is limited to the first run of a post, so you get it as I originally sent it, typos and all. Consider it a raw feed. Comments do not get sent to subscribers, so if you wish to follow any side discussions, you’ll still need to browse the blog. Also, subscribers are anonymous, to the extent you’ll be shielded from other subscribers. Yes, I’ll know you’re subscribing, but I won’t bug you about it, and your secret is safe with me.

Next on the tech side is a brief snippet about optimal viewing. If you look on the right side margin and don’t see a “Foster’s Blog” graphic and list of menu items, you’re probably still using an antiquated version of Internet Explorer whose programming was writing in the last century. I strongly urge anyone not already doing so to switch to Mozilla’s Firefox. With tabbed viewing, greater security, faster loading, and full recognition of the .css code used to build most blogs, it’s clearly a superior browser, and if you aren't using it you don’t know what you’re missing.

On the philosophical side… I need to perform a task called “managing expectations.” I’ve mentioned a few times in recent weeks that “there’s more to the story” than I indicate on a particular thread. Am I holding back information? Absolutely… mostly because I don’t want to do anything that might interfere with someone's ongoing negotiations. Consider it a blog version of the “Prime Directive.” Plus, if I do leak something, I’ll never hear anything from a given source ever again. Bottom line: where news is concerned, I don’t this blog to become the news unto itself. Opinions are a different matter, of course, and if something is well beyond the rumor stage, it’s open season. But I don’t want anyone to use me as an excuse for why some deal went south.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

NAHL Meetings Review

Okay... in order, here's my take on the NAHL public decisions from this weekend:

1) The Board approved the relocation of Helena Bighorns to Taylor, Michigan, for the 2006-07 season.

The Helena-to-Taylor (not Troy, as was misreported by some media over the weekend) move was not breaking news by most standards, as this was expected as part of the Great Montana Defection to the AWHL. However, by all accounts the sale and relocation are not complete.

2) The Board granted inactive membership status to the Cleveland Barons for the 2006-07 season.

No surprise here, since the Barons have been unable to find an owner willing to keep the team in Cleveland.

3) The Board accepted the voluntary termination of the Billings Bulls effective immediately.

I'm not sure why Billings decided to roll over on this one. Perhaps, with all the efforts to ensure a rink to play in and the move to the AWHL, Strong and Bonanno didn't feel like trying to find a buyer and market to which peddle their NAHL franchise rights. The events of last summer, with Santa Fe being sold at $50k below expansion fee cost and the Soo Indians voluntarily forfeiting their rights, suggests that there were too many franchises chasing too few viable and/or willing markets then, and that the glut remains a problem in the NAHL today.

4) The Board approved the transfer of ownership of the Santa Fe Roadrunners to Mary Magdalene Lorang.

The sale took place several months ago and was made public locally, but the news didn't travel far. For those who insist this is a precursor to the Roadrunners relocating again, bear in mind that Mary Magdalene Lorang is a Santa Fe local, and it's quite rare for a local to buy a team then immediately move it.

5) The Board approved the transfer of ownership of the Wasilla Spirit to a group lead by Mark Lee.

No surprise here, as the sale was previously advertised and, like the 'Runners sale, just needed a final sign off by the league.

6) Due to these movements, the divisional alignment for the 2006-07 season has yet to be determined.

We're not going to know who is left standing where until the teams are all sanctioned next month by the Junior Council. However, I expect Bozeman to vacate the league as part of the AWHL strategy. Word is some form of announcement about the Icedogs will be made Monday. Martel probably has the most to lose with his fans by defecting, so he needed the shoes to drop in Billings and Helena before he could justify the jump. I'm not faulting this, if it is indeed his strategy, but just laying it out there.

To continue... This places the Alaska teams at geographic risk once again, and at this point logic suggests moving them back to the South Division. Springfield will switch to the North (would someone please rename it the EAST Division?!???). The Central (should be NORTH) will remain relatively unchanged, although I suggest that Marquette be split from the North to 1) balance the three divisions at six teams each; and 2) be allowed extra interdivisional games against Alpena and Traverse City. This would make Marquette a swing team much the same way Springfield was this season between the North and South. I've already discussed the travel distances for Marquette, but for those who forgot, it's closer to Fargo, Alexandria, Owatonna, and Mason City than it is to Youngstown. So what I expect to see is the following:

EAST
Alpena
Mahoning Valley
Springfield
Downriver (Taylor)
Traverse City
USNTDP

SOUTH
Fairbanks
Santa Fe
Texarkana
Texas
Wasilla
Wichita Falls

NORTH
Bismarck
Fargo-Moorhead
Marquette
Minnesota
North Iowa
Southern Minnesota

I'm probably forgetting some little tidbit here or there... but most of you have plenty to digest here, so I'll call it a night.

Attendance Mythinformation

Great piece this week from the San Diego Times-Union about attendance at sporting events. I've been anticipating this article for a couple of weeks, and Mark Zeigler delivered. There's also a supplemental article that defines some major league policies and points to a few glaring examples of reported number abuse.

The main article provides some excellent reference material, including a set of definitions to help sort out the varying terminology. Hans Hornstein (I've been meaning to plug his website) got some good quotes in as well. I usually reference Hans' attendance data instead of PointStreak for NAHL numbers, because PS inappropriately includes Showcase games in their numbers. Hans also tracks standings daily and provides other value-added features to both his attendance and standings pages, so his stuff is worth checking out.

This just in...

The NAHL's Stu Hackel just released a selection of outcomes from the league meetings in Youngstown:
RECENT ACTIONS BY THE NAHL BOARD OF GOVERNORS

Frisco, Texas -- The following actions with respect to member clubs were taken at the North American Hockey League's Board of Governors meeting in Boardman, Ohio, on Saturday, May 13, 2006:

The Board approved the relocation of Helena Bighorns to Taylor, Michigan, for the 2006-07 season.

The Board granted inactive membership status to the Cleveland Barons for the 2006-07 season.

The Board accepted the voluntary termination of the Billings Bulls effective immediately.

The Board approved the transfer of ownership of the Santa Fe Roadrunners to Mary Lorang

The Board approved the transfer of ownership of the Wasilla Spirit to a group lead by Mark Lee.

Due to these movements, the divisional alignment for the 2006-07 season has yet to be determined.
Short and sweet. I'll talk about some of these items later this evening when I have time...

What are the odds?

My wife, Lindsay, has advised numerous hockey players over the past three years (and written about academics for USA Junior Hockey Magazine) as well as athletes involved in football, softball, soccer, swimming, and track. Some of these individuals know that their road ends with college since there isn’t “professional” swimming, but others hold on to the dream to be paid to play the sport that they love.

As a matter of personal interest, Lindsay went looking for statistics that would indicate the likelihood of an athlete in any sport going on to the professional ranks. The NCAA published their findings for the following sports: men’s and women’s basketball, football, baseball, men’s hockey, and men’s soccer. To the best of her knowledge, these numbers do not include minor league or lower tier professional sports, simply recognized professional levels: the NBA, the WNBA, the NFL, MLB, the NHL, and MLS.

There are 549,500 male and 456,900 female high school basket ball players. Of those, 15,700 males and 14,400 females are registered as NCAA student-athletes. Of the 3500 male senior basketball players, only 44 are drafted each year on average. That means that 2.9% (or 2 out of every 100) male basketball players go on to play in college and only .03% (or 3 of every 10,000 people) go from high school on through to the professional ranks. For women, the numbers are even smaller. Of the 3200 senior women basketball players, only 32 of them will be drafted in the WNBA. This means that 3.1% (or 3 of every 100 women) will go on from high school to compete at the collegiate level and .02% (or 2 of every 10,000 women) will go onto the professional ranks.

The numbers are slightly better for football players, probably due to larger rosters. There are 281,000 senior high school football players in this country. 56, 500 of those become NCAA student-athletes, and only 12,600 become NCAA senior student-athletes. 250 of those football players are drafted on average each year to the 32 teams in the NFL, which means that 5.8% (or 5 out of every 100 high school players) will go onto play NCAA football, but only .09% (or 9 of every 10,000 people) will go from playing high school football onto the NFL.

Baseball gives the best odds, again probably due to roster size and number of teams. There are 455,300 baseball players at the high school level. 25,700 of these players participate at the collegiate level. Of the 5,700 senior level NCAA student-athletes, 600 are drafted by MLB. Baseball players have a 5.6% chance of playing at the collegiate level in their sport, and .5% (5 of every 1000 people) chance to play at the professional level. Baseball players are ten times more likely to participate in major league sports than male or female basketball players.

Soccer players also have better odds than most. Of the 321,400 men’s soccer players, 18, 200 of them become NCAA student-athletes. Of the 4100 senior student-athletes, 46 are drafted to the professional ranks. Although a soccer player has a 5.7% chance of playing in high school and college, he has only a .08% (8 of every 10,000 people) chance of participating in professional soccer.

Hockey surprised her. She didn’t really think that the odds were in the players’ favor and yet, here are the numbers. Of the 29,900 high school level hockey players in the United States, 3,700 of them become NCAA student athletes. That’s 12.9% (12 out of every 100 people) – double the chances of a football player, which the next highest likelihood. But of the 800 senior NCAA hockey players, only 33 are drafted. This gives an NCAA hockey player a .4% (4 of every 1000 people) chance of participating in professional sports after participating in high school and college. The odds in hockey are better than any other of the sports listed except baseball.

Despite the positive outlook for hockey players, the fact remains that one player for every 1000 players will achieve his dream of being “paid to play” in ANY sport. For those 12 out of every 100 players who participates at the collegiate level, use that opportunity to learn, to educate, and to graduate.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

"Hostile" Mascot Update

Some hope for Fighting Sioux fans… in the form of legislation. It’s nice to see Congress display some common sense once is awhile. I’ve never really understood the whole “hostility” argument anyway. Hostile in North Dakota would be using the insignia for the U.S. 7th Cavalry, not imagery designed by one of the Sioux tribe's very own. Still, these are the only sorts of threats the NCAA understands; half the reason Florida State obtained their waiver was the state legislature threatened the NCAA with antitrust legislation. Besides, a 2002 Peter Harris Research Group poll showed that 81% of Native Americans support the use of Indian nicknames in high school and college sports, and 83% of Native Americans support the use of Indian mascots and symbols in professional sports. The accompanying commentary concluded that the “poll suggests that although Native American activists are virtually united in opposition to the use of Indian nicknames and mascots, the Native American population sees the issue far differently.” I think we can count Jim Thorpe among them.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Lunch Update

Credit where due... It appears that the WSHL will be using PointStreak next season. I'm assuming they'll go with the NorPac version, which means games will be posted upon completion, and no live updates. I can't fault them for that, because they're moving in the right direction. Live updates are nice, but weren't even possible until just a few seasons ago, so I don't think anyone has room to complain.

I hope to know more about the NAHL meetings by tonight, and am expecting the NAHL to put out a release concerning the meetings in the next couple of days. At this rate... next season's divisional alignment is going to be pretty screwy.

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Hockeymetrics, a prelude...

Baseball is now a full generation into what is now known as Sabermetrics. Sabermetrics has received a series of promotional bumps over the years, starting with the Bill James Abstracts of the 1980's; the publishing of Moneyball, about the Oakland A's under GM Billy Beane; and most recently, the World Series title won by the Red Sox, whose GM, Theo Epstein. Epstein ended the Curse of the Bambino as the youngest GM in history and as someone who never played the game beyond high school. Epstein is, no surprise, a student of sabermetrics.

Several years ago I co-authored a column on SportsIllustrated.com about hockey stats. More specifically, I explored doing things with hockey stats that no one had done before. With the column, I wanted to do for hockey what James and other had done for baseball. Surprisingly, several sabermetric methods translate very well from baseball to hockey. I say surprisingly because baseball is very much an analog sport, whereas hockey is digital. To further explain, baseball is a series of distinct events, each one initialized by the pitcher hurling the ball to the catcher. From there, a myriad of outcomes and resultant sub-outcomes is possible, but at the end of the play we return to the pitcher, on the mound, ready to toss that next pitch. Hockey, in contrast, is a constant stream of seemingly randomized and chaotic events and outcomes.

I wrote the column for several months, but was disappointed by the lack of response. Perhaps it was because I was writing for SI.com and not THN, and I wasn't connecting with readers. The one thing that did come out of it was I was offered a book deal with Brassey's Publishing (now Potomac Books) to compile a hockey version of the Baseball Prospectus. Unfortunately, the money offered barely covered the cost to acquire the NHL's RTSS database, and when split out to accommodate the half-dozen writers I assembled, just wasn't worth the effort, so I junked the project.

In the years since, I've allowed my methods to age. The statistical science has a name, Hockeymetrics, unoriginal as it is, and there are perhaps a dozen or so people around North America that dabble in it. I've kicked around some of my ideas with some coaches I know, and most have been interested in my concepts. I've also been told that former Maine Black Bears coach Shawn Walsh was a bit of a stat-geek, so maybe there is room in this game for some of my methods, if not my madness.

I figure now is as good of a time as any to start discussing these things. Anyone who wants to get a head start can review my columns from an index which can be found here. As always, comments are welcome. For those of you whose brains turn to mush during these types of discussions, rest assured I will keep up with my usual blogging. Think of the stats discussion as a bonus, not a new direction.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

The News from Youngstown

Here's some bits and pieces from the NAHL meetings in Youngstown...

The Billings Bulls were voted out, while the status of Helena and Bozeman remains uncertain. Wasilla's new ownership was approved, and Cleveland has been allowed to go dormant for a year.

More as I get it...

Friday, May 12, 2006

What Void?!???

I normally stay clear of the politics in the eastern U.S., but ya gotta love this bit of bravado from the AEHL... Most notably, that... "CTDP is located in Northeast Ohio and expected to fill the void created by the Cleveland Barons of the NAHL."

Last time I checked, the Barons have not folded or moved. Their desire has been to sell their team to someone who will keep the operation in Cleveland. Tom Goebel was listed as a signee to the recent Northern Division demands, further reinforcing the idea that Cleveland is not void of junior hockey just yet.

Maybe the CTDP will be the only junior operation in Cleveland next season, but right now I'd say their claim jumps the gun.

Update: I had a kind reader remind me that I had forgotten the Jr. Lumberacks, who represented the CSHL well in Philadelphia this year... my apologies!

The Sound of Silence

Not as much going on right now folks, sorry. I should have some sense of what came out of the WSHL meetings in about two weeks, once some due-diligence is performed on some programs. The one item I can relate is that there will be a team representing Tarrant County (Fort Worth) next season, I just can't go into the details and scenarios yet.

The NAHL's meeting kicked off today, and the only new item of interest I've heard is an unsubstantiated report that Bozeman may remain in the NAHL next season. If this happens, I don't that they'd take their NorPac team to the AWHL, or just keep it in the NorPac. I usually don't get much of a report until after meetings have concluded, so forgive the defacto blackout.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Get the duct tape...

I guess I'm confused. If the Bulls are going NorPac, and not AWHL, with whom are they going to be rivals, assuming the rest of the Montana teams go A-Dub? Why wait to join?

Memo to Doug Strong: HUSH!

I know you want to keep the team in the news, but sometimes it's best to keep quiet until things actually shake out. Then again, maybe this is simply some applied misdirection. After all... it wouldn't be the sillyseason without some.


Speaking of keeping one's yapper shut... Today marks Day 2 of the WSHL league meetings in Las Vegas. I must confess that I am withholding a fair bit of the proceedings at this point, but only because I do not wish to paint an incomplete picture of what has been taking place. I will say, however, that odds appear to be very good that the league will add one more team that was not anticipated by most observers.


I don't normally comment on individual games, but last night's 7-3 win by the Southern Minny Express over the Texas Tornado qualifies as a mild shocker. I'm sure there are plenty of reasons/excuses, such as the extended layoff, etc... but I guess it's safe to assume that the deadly tornado that dropped down within slapshot distance of Frisco the night before wasn't a good omen.

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Other NCAA News

Here's some other stuff from The Chronicle I thought I'd toss out there. First up is some news on unregulated prep schools. This did crack the mainstream media somewhat, probably because this is a popular way to get basketball players in to college in the post Prop 48 world...

NCAA to Crack Down on Unregulated Prep Schools

The National Collegiate Athletic Association plans to get tough with unregulated preparatory schools.

The association enacted legislation last month designed to expose fraudulent preparatory schools and diploma-mill high schools. The measure gives the NCAA broad powers to scrutinize schools that are not accredited by state or regional agencies.

NCAA officials have estimated that dozens of preparatory schools might be providing fake grades to help elite high-school athletes with poor academic records get into college.

The problems came to light in December, when a correspondence high school in Miami was singled out for its remarkable success in raising the grade-point averages of high-school football players. A New York Times investigation led the NCAA, the Florida High School Athletic Association, and the Miami-Dade County Public Schools to conduct their own inquiries.

Soon afterward, Myles Brand, the NCAA's president, established a 17-member group to determine how widespread the problem is.

The level of fraud is increasing, Mr. Brand says. Some secondary schools are offering diplomas for a flat fee with no course work required. Other schools provide little or no instruction yet graduate students with high grades.

The new rules were created to help the NCAA curb such abuses.

Starting last month, NCAA officials planned to start asking tougher questions of hundreds of unregulated preparatory schools and the students who attend them.

The association will now require those schools to provide written verification that they offer valid academic courses.

NCAA officials will also examine students' transcripts more closely to look for fraudulent activity — for example, taking three levels of Spanish in one semester.

The association plans to add four employees and work with private investigators and law firms to help ferret out schools that are operating inappropriately. NCAA employees will make visits to preparatory schools where they suspect problems.

By this summer, the association plans to release a list of schools that fail to meet its eligibility requirements. Students who have attended those schools and who have received college athletics scholarships will probably be allowed to keep their scholarships this fall. But they would not be allowed to participate in their sports until NCAA officials determined that their high-school grades were legitimate.

"As we phase in the program, we want to look carefully not to unfairly punish students," says Kevin Lennon, an NCAA vice president.

But if the NCAA finds "absolute abuses" in which students are complicit in academic fraud, he says, those students will not be "grandfathered in."


Next up we have the ongoing saga of mascots. The NCAA recently told the University of North Dakota to go #$@% themselves by rejecting their appeal to grant a waiver to the Fighting Sioux, and UND is preparring to respond in kind. It's too bad the NCAA can't look in the mirror and discover the hostile behavior is coming from Indianapolis (an ironic place name for the headquarters of the NCAA), because once the landscape has been removed of every mascot and place name with a Native American reference, they will have successfully completed their ethnic cleansing, and we will have forgotten that Native Americans ever existed in this country. Yes, this is a bitter subject for me. I went to one school whose mascot essentially glorifies people who were technically criminals (although I don't particularly have a problem with using Sooners), while my grad school (Oklahoma City U.) went through their PC phase under a new president whose only accomplishment was to change the nickname from Chiefs to Stars. Funny thing is, I'd think that if the Chiefs' athletic director had a problem with the name, being full-blooded Kiowa he would have stepped up either as a student (he played basketball for the school) or during his tenure as AD. Part of the problem is that the average tenure of a university president isn't what it used to be. The president at OKC U. who made the change, for example, was around for about 18 months (if that). These guys bounce around from school to school, and thus develop no deep loyalty or appreciation for the traditions of their institutions. If I lost anyone in this rant, I'll remind you these are the same people who make the rules in the NCAA. I'll put the brakes on my diatribe now and just say I think North Dakota will likely win this case in the long run.

Mascot Dispute Escalates - Universities consider suing the NCAA after it rejects appeals over the use of American Indian images

The National Collegiate Athletic Association denied appeals last month from three universities who want to continue using American Indian mascots and nicknames that the association has deemed to be "hostile and abusive."

The ruling, by the NCAA's Executive Committee, means that Indiana University of Pennsylvania, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and the University of North Dakota will not be allowed to participate in or serve as hosts for NCAA postseason tournaments unless they drop their American Indian mascots and team nicknames.

Nine months ago, the NCAA ordered 19 colleges to stop using American Indian nicknames during postseason competition. After last month's ruling, six colleges remain on a list of institutions banned from playing in or serving as hosts for postseason games because they have not changed their mascots or nicknames. Appeals from three other colleges are pending. (See the table on Page A44 for the status of all the cases.)

NCAA officials described last month's ruling as final, but the confrontation does not appear likely to end anytime soon. Officials at Illinois and North Dakota sharply criticized the decision and are considering legal action against the NCAA to keep their names without penalty.

The issue raises questions about what legal right the NCAA has to prohibit certain universities from using mascots and team nicknames that they choose. Courts have traditionally given the NCAA broad latitude to enforce its rules on member colleges. But some legal experts question the way in which the association formulated its mascot policy, and say that it could violate universities' legal rights to equal protection because it singles out some Indian mascots and not others.

Myles Brand, the NCAA's president, said in a news conference last month that the association has the "obligation and responsibility" to ensure that its championship events are conducted in a way that respects the rights of members of all ethnic groups, including American Indians. All ethnicities, he said, are guaranteed rights under the U.S. Constitution.

Asked how the NCAA's policy would hold up if it was challenged in court, Mr. Brand said the association "feels very confident in its position and will defend it to the utmost."

Fighting Back

The latest rulings angered officials at the University of Illinois at Urbana - Champaign and the University of North Dakota. Of the six colleges on the list of banned institutions, Illinois and North Dakota have the most to lose because they have the biggest athletics programs.

Last fall Illinois officials won an appeal from the NCAA to keep using the university's "Illini" and "Fighting Illini" nicknames. The latest appeal involved its Chief Illiniwek mascot, which NCAA officials still consider hostile and abusive.

Last month Illinois officials said that a ban on holding NCAA postseason events would put Illini athletics programs at a competitive disadvantage and could prevent the university from being able to recruit the best athletes and coaches.

The ruling could have an immediate impact on the university's athletics program. The Illini men's tennis team, ranked among the nation's top 10 programs, was expected to play host to early rounds of the NCAA tournament beginning this month. Now the team may not be able to play postseason home matches.

Many of Illinois's other sports programs could also suffer. The Illini have played host to NCAA championship events in eight different men's and women's sports, and regularly compete for national championships in many events. In men's gymnastics, for example, Illinois was host to the NCAA championships in 2004, and the Illini team finished second in NCAA competition this year.

The NCAA denied North Dakota's appeal to keep using its "Fighting Sioux" nickname after hearing from a Sioux leader who said his tribe opposed the university's use of its name.

Charles E. Kupchella, president of the University of North Dakota, said in a written statement that he was "baffled" by the NCAA's "arbitrary and capricious" ruling. He said the university planned to consider "legal and other options" with the state's board of higher education and North Dakota's attorney general.

North Dakota has one of the best Division I hockey programs in the country, and often holds NCAA tournament games in its $100-million Ralph Engelstad Arena.

The facility has thousands of images of the university's "Fighting Sioux" logo emblazoned on the walls and on the gymnasium floor. To hold NCAA postseason games there now, the university must change its nickname and cover up those images.

Finding Fault

If any college sues the NCAA to keep using its American Indian images in postseason play, a court may find fault with the way the NCAA enacted its mascot policy, several lawyers say.

The NCAA's Division I Board of Directors normally hands down legislative changes after member colleges weigh in. In this case, however, the association's Executive Committee passed the policy without allowing colleges as much input as the board usually does.

The Executive Committee is considered a governance body and does not enact legislation, but under NCAA bylaws it oversees associationwide issues and is allowed to establish policies.

Some lawyers say that because the NCAA did not follow its normal procedures, a court may consider overturning the policy.

Bernard W. Franklin, a senior vice president at the association who oversees the Executive Committee's mascot work, says the decision was well vetted by member colleges.

"This decision came about after a five-year review," he says, adding that it should not have surprised anyone.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

What?!??? No Scholly's

This week's Chronicle of Higher Education has an interesting column by John R. Gerdy. Gerdy is a visiting professor at Ohio U.'s Division of Sports Administration, and makes the case for the NCAA dropping athletic scholarships completely. Before everyone screams bloody murder over this apparent heresy, read the column below (The Chron is behind a password). The one area Gerdy just barely glosses over is Title IX. Maybe he discusses it more in his book, but could shifting from athletic schollys to need-based finanical assistance rid NCAA sports of many Title IX issues? Title IX is about equal opportunity (not that women need it, since they make up about 60% of the college students enrolled today), and in the NCAA it's tied to finances. If you drop the financial side of the opportunity, would that render Title IX moot? Title IX is the single greatest reason for the lack of NCAA DI hockey programs, so anything that could expand opportunities for hockey players might be seen as a good thing.

Anyway, here's the piece:

For True Reform, Athletics Scholarships Must Go
JOHN R. GERDY - The Chronicle Review: May 12, 2006

The president of the National Collegiate Athletics Association, Myles Brand, created a stir recently when he forcefully defended the NCAA's commercial efforts to raise revenues for its member institutions. "Commercialism per se" is not incompatible with the values of higher education, he contended in his 2006 "State of the Association" address. "It depends entirely on how the commercial activity is conducted."

Despite the outcry his comments generated among critics of college athletics, Brand is absolutely correct. If only he had stopped there.

Responding to those who think that "working too hard to generate revenue somehow taints the purity of college sports," Brand cried, "Nonsense! This type of thinking is both a misinterpretation and a misapplication of amateurism. 'Amateur' defines the participants, not the enterprise."

Talk about nonsense!

Division I scholarship athletes are professionals — and to claim otherwise is to ignore reality.

Consider the essence of professional athletics: pay for play. Despite Brand's idealistic rhetoric, the contract between the college athlete and the institution no longer represents the "amateur" ideal of "pay (scholarship) for education" when it is plain to everyone — coaches, fans, faculty members, media, and especially the athletes — that they are on the campus, first and foremost, to play ball. That, by any definition, is "pay for play."

The professional model is also about paying whatever you must for coaches, staff members, facilities, scouting, travel, and anything else that coaches believe might make the difference between winning and losing, regardless of how outrageous or remote the actual impact. Professional sports is also about playing anywhere at anytime to reap television revenues. And professional athletics is about the expectation that athletes train year-round and sacrifice their bodies for "the program." In short, Division I athletics, as currently structured and conducted, operates on the same basic principles as professional sports teams.

Yet educational institutions have no business being in the business of professional sports. It is time to dismantle the professional model of college athletics and rebuild it in the image of an educational institution.

Specifically, the athletics scholarship must be eliminated in favor of institutional need-based aid. The athletics scholarship at its foundation is the biggest barrier to athletes' getting a genuine educational opportunity. When you are paid to play, regardless of the form of "payment," everything takes a back seat to athletic performance.

Calls to eliminate the athletics scholarship in favor of need-based aid are not new. In 1952 the Special Committee on Athletic Reform of the American Council on Education recommended that scholarships be awarded based solely on academic need rather than athletic ability. In 1989 the NCAA President's Commission proposed establishing a need-based system for all sports — with the exceptions of football and men's basketball and two women's sports selected by the institution. More recently, the faculty-led Drake Group suggested changing to a need-based aid system as part of its reform agenda. While some may interpret those failed attempts to adopt a need-based aid model as evidence that it will never pass, an alternative view would be that it is an idea whose time has simply yet to come.

At first glance, it would appear that eliminating athletics scholarships in favor of a need-based formula would not be in the best interest of athletes. However, if judged on what is in their best interest for the next 50 years of their lives, rather than the four or five years they are on a campus, it becomes clear that eliminating the athletics grant will contribute significantly to athletes' chances of obtaining a well-balanced college experience.

An athletics scholarship represents a contractual agreement between the athlete and the coach. That contract allows coaches to view athletes as employees, bought and paid for by the athletics department, and has little to do with education and everything to do with athletic performance and control. If the athlete does not do what the coach wants, or fails to meet expectations on the field or court, he or she can be "fired."

A need-based financial aid agreement, however, is a contractual agreement between the student and the institution. Under such a contract, the student would continue to receive his or her financial aid regardless of what transpires on the athletics field. As a result, the student would be less beholden to the athletics department's competitive and business motives and freer to explore the wide diversity of experiences college offers. There is no more effective way to "empower" the athlete because it would fundamentally change the relationships among the athlete, the coach, and the institution.

Some argue that eliminating athletics scholarships would deny opportunity and limit access for many students, most notably black athletes. The question is, access to what? The fields of competition or an opportunity to earn a meaningful degree? With the six-year graduation rates of black basketball players hovering in the high 30-percent range, and black football players in the high 40-percent range, despite years of "academic reform," earning an athletics scholarship under the current system is little more than a chance to play sports.

A more likely result of the change would be that the black athletes would simply be replaced by other black athletes. While they might be a bit less talented and obsessed with athletics, they would probably be better students — or at least somewhat interested in academic achievement rather than simply using college as a springboard to the pros. What's the better lifelong deal: receiving need-based aid that leads to a meaningful degree, or receiving an athletics scholarship that provides an educational experience that is a sham?

Another potential benefit of this change relates to the athletics culture on campus. How much of an impact does receiving a scholarship, and all the benefits and special treatment that accompany it, have on an athlete's sense of entitlement? How much does it contribute not only to the isolation of the athlete and the team from the general student body, but also to the creation of a team culture that is often at odds with broader academic mores and behavioral expectations? Could it be that much of the deviant athlete behavior that has been revealed in recent scandals at the University of Colorado at Boulder in football and now, apparently, Duke University in lacrosse is in part the result of athletes' believing their status exempts them from the behavioral standards applied to other students? Dropping the athletics scholarship would help to recast the image of the athlete from the current hired mercenary of the gladiator class to simply a student who happens to be a good athlete.

Finally, the elimination of athletics scholarships would have a tremendous impact beyond the walls of academe. As a society, we have lost perspective regarding the role that sports should play in our schools, communities, and lives. For proof, one has only to read the daily newspaper to see how high-school and youth programs have become increasingly competitive: coaches scream at 7-year-olds for committing errors; parents and coaches push children to specialize in a sport at earlier and earlier ages; parents sue a coach because their child doesn't get enough playing time; parents attack Little League umpires or even fatally beat each other at a youth-hockey game. Far too many parents and youngsters believe sports, rather than education, is the ticket to future success. While moving to a need-based aid system may not completely change that myth, our educational institutions should have absolutely no part in perpetuating it.

Other aspects of the professional model must also be changed. College freshmen should not be eligible for varsity competition. Spring football and out-of-season practices should be eliminated, as should off-campus recruiting. Basketball and football coaching staffs should be cut in half. Seasons should be shortened, schedules reduced, and travel more restricted.

Such changes would significantly shrink the sizes, budgets, and campus influence of athletics departments. Yet if you operate a business where expenses outpace revenue and where revenue streams are almost tapped out, as is the case with athletics at most colleges and universities — how many more stadium boxes can you build, and how much more stadium signage can you sell? — there is only one way to become solvent: Cut expenses and overhead. Shrink the operation. Many college programs and departments have been downsized or shut down when it has become apparent that they fail to meet their purposes or are drains on institutional resources.

Although college presidents have worked diligently to reform athletics, their efforts have failed to change the fundamental culture and operating principles surrounding Division I programs. Raising academic standards may result in a few more athletes' graduating, but history tells us that, more often, it simply heightens the bar for academic fraud, fosters a greater dependence on athletics-department tutoring services, creates pseudomajors to keep athletes eligible, and incites an arms race in the area of academic-support programs and facilities. Change that is more fundamental must occur.

That is not to say that intercollegiate athletics should be eliminated from higher education. To the contrary, the benefits and positive influence of university-sponsored athletics programs that are operated in a fiscally sound and academically responsible manner can be enormous. Even programs with commercial ties can advance an academic agenda and contribute to the institutional mission in meaningful ways.

Indeed, we must accept the notion that as long as we have athletics, commercialism will be a part of it. We must also recognize that the financing of American higher education is radically different from 20 years ago. Corporate-sponsored research, naming rights, and the commercialization of myriad other aspects of colleges' operations are increasingly common. And given a future economic outlook of increasing costs and declining revenues and state support, the pressure on institutions to set up partnerships with commercial entities to maintain academic excellence will only increase. Against that backdrop, the commercialism of athletics will look increasingly less radical and out of line with the financing of higher education in general.

In such an environment, athletics' potential to generate resources becomes more important. Thus, what's at issue is not whether athletics can or should be used as a commercial entity to advance institutional mission, but rather how to construct and operate the enterprise to maximize both its commercial and its educational values. The fundamental question regarding that challenge is whether the professional model, with its runaway costs, undermining of academic integrity, and win-at-all-cost culture, is the most effective way to achieve those ends.

Despite the growing evidence that the professional model is not, we continue to buy into the notion advanced by the athletics community that what makes college athletics commercially viable is the "level of play." That has led to a drive to mirror professional sports in training and playing, as well as in behavioral and management styles. It has been the athletics establishment's unyielding adherence to that notion of the "quality of the game," coupled with higher-education leaders' lack of courage to confront such claims, that is most responsible for the misguided professionalization and fiscal excesses of college athletics.

Little evidence, however, suggests that changes such as those that I've recommended would have enough impact on the "quality of the game" to adversely affect the long-term entertainment value of the University of Florida, Pennsylvania State University, or the University of California at Los Angeles in the marketplace. The appeal of college athletics rests not only in how high the players jump, how fast they run, whether they participated in spring practice, or whether they are on an athletics scholarship. Rather, a big part of the commercial draw is that the activity is steeped in university tradition and linked to the higher purpose of education. Alabama-Auburn, Harvard-Yale, Michigan-Ohio State, and Oklahoma-Texas will always draw crowds, be covered by the media, and captivate the public's imagination, regardless of the level of play.

The key to a successful athletic-entertainment business is maintaining public confidence and interest. Public perception of your "brand," or what your business stands for, is critical. Like it or not, the current NCAA brand does not stand for students who are pursuing an education, but rather for pampered, mercenary athletes who have little interest in attending class and are using college as a vehicle to play in the pros. A poll released by the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics in January found that by a 2-to-1 margin, Americans believe that college sports are more like professional sports than amateur sports.

Most people want college athletics to stand for something other than turning a buck, preparing the next generation of professional stars, and winning at any cost. Deprofessionalizing the operation would actually increase college athletics' public and commercial appeal. Not only would its fan base hold steady and probably even expand, but corporate interest would also increase, as companies prefer to associate their products with positive and wholesome institutions. The public would be more likely to continue to support college sports, or, for those who have become disengaged, to reconnect with them.

Realizing change of this magnitude, however, will be neither quick nor easy. It will require the courage and will of college and university leaders to make athletics look like and represent what they want.

Higher education has been at the reform game, with limited success, for decades. That does not mean that there has not been significant progress in building the foundation and critical mass that can serve as backdrop for significant change. Despite a rash of recent scandals that has led many to suggest that reform is a lost cause, upon closer examination, there are many signs that suggest, for the first time, that the table of reform may finally be set. The writer Malcolm Gladwell describes the one dramatic moment or event in a social movement when everything can change at once as the "tipping point," in his book of that title (Little, Brown, 2000). We may finally be approaching the tipping point for revolutionary change in college sports.

Over the past few years, we have been treated to out-of-control coaches, several cases of academic fraud, and even a murder of a basketball player at Baylor University. Despite such discouraging examples, the third incarnation of the Knight Commission in 2003 represented the continuation of what has been a 24-year process of envisioning, articulating, building, and institutionalizing the structure necessary to support meaningful reform. This movement began in earnest in 1983 when the NCAA adopted a set of academic standards that significantly raised the bar for freshman eligibility.

The significance of the type and duration of the reform effort cannot be overemphasized. Reform of college athletics requires the building and coalescing of a critical mass of people, institutions, and organizations over an extended period of time to drive change. Besides the Knight Commission, other "outside" groups such as the Drake Group, the Coalition on Intercollegiate Athletics, and the Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges have been pressing for it.

Further, the context in which college athletics operates has changed — and, in some ways, rather significantly. For example, not only has public pressure for reform increased, but Congress is beginning to look more critically at the business of college athletics. Title IX continues to exert pressure on athletics departments regarding how best to appropriate resources. Increasingly, research is beginning to paint a more critical picture of athletics' impact on institutional values and outcomes. And where 20 years ago, talk of institutional control and compliance was unheard of, a firmly entrenched and growing compliance community now works to instill a culture of accountability and integrity in intercollegiate athletics.

The situation is far different from the athletics cultures that existed during previous reform efforts. The seeds of reform that were advanced in the 1929 report on athletics of the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, the "Sanity Code" (or "Principles for the Conduct of Intercollegiate Athletics") of 1946, and the ACE proposals of 1952 were strewn on a barren cultural landscape. Today that landscape is much more fertile for seeds of reform to take root. We may finally be on the verge of the intersection of people, institutions, and ideas, coupled with a series of changing contextual factors, needed to transform the role of sports in our educational institutions. As those forces coalesce, the time for systemic change has never been better. All that is needed is the initiative that begins the avalanche of change.

That initiative is the elimination of the athletics scholarship, which would provide American higher education the much-needed opportunity to recalibrate every aspect of its relationship with athletics. We must get beyond the fear that eliminating the athletics scholarship and the department of professional athletics will cause the entire enterprise to collapse. To the contrary, it will make it more educationally sound, more commercially viable, and thus more effective in contributing to larger university purposes.